New Brunswick
Photo Credit: Ryan Groom, Grand Manan

New Brunswick’s Future Climate Projections:

AR5 Data and Maps

Home | New Brunswick’s Future Climate Projections: AR4 Data and Maps | Français

Background

What types of climate datasets does this site have for the Province of New Brunswick?
This site has the projected change for 29 climate indices (see Table 1 below) for the province of New Brunswick. The datasets includes 29 climate indices baseline conditions over the 1980−2010 period from the historical observation records and GCMs (global climate models) climate projections for the future periods 2020, 2050 and 2080 over the 21st century.
What types of climate scenarios data and maps we can access from this site?
The four GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) developed by (Moss et al., 2010) called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are named according to their total radiative forcing around 2100. That is, RCP 8.5 is a scenario in which GHG heat the planet at a rate of 8.5 W/m2 in 2100. Details of the four RCPs can be found in Moss et al. (2010) and Van Vuuren et al. (2011). The projected change for the climate indices are calculated for three future time horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). For each future time horizons, two different RCPs are presented here, namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The choice of RCP is based on CMIP5 priority described in Taylor et al. (2011), which suggests RCP 4.5 and 8.5 as the core RCPs for modelling centers for their long-term experiments (i.e. years 2006-2100). Other GHG forcing scenarios are RCP 2.6, which would require immediate, aggressive, emission mitigation actions and carbon storage, and RCP 6.0, which lies between RCP 4.5 and 8.5.
Which meteorological stations are used in the climate scenarios database for New Brunswick?
The figure below shows the meteorological stations used and the stations can be identified.
What does the climate dataset and maps tells us about the future climate of New Brunswick?
New Brunswick will experience a substantial increase in mean temperature over all seasons for the 2020, 2050 and 2080 time horizons. Around 2080, these increases vary between +2.5 to +6.5 °C according to the seasons (higher increases in winter), scenarios (higher increases with RCP 8.5) and geographical location (higher increases in Bathurst). The consensus among models (i.e. the relative number of models showing a similar signal) is strong for all temperature based indices.
An important increase is expected for very hot days (maximum temperature higher than 30 °C) for time horizon 2080, especially for the cities such as Moncton (+10 to +35 hot days) as well as the most northern city of Bathurst (+10 to +35 hot days). For St-John, the projections suggest smaller increases of +5 to +20 hot days.
Changes in agricultural indices, such as growing season length are expected for the whole province. For example, in Moncton, for time horizon 2080, the expected season length varies between an additional +29 days (RCP 4.5) to +61 days (RCP 8.5) of growing season length.
For precipitation, the signal is clearer for winter and spring, when accumulations of rain and snow are expected to increase. For the summer and fall seasons, projections suggest an increase but the model consensus is weaker.
Are there any regional climate datasets and maps available?
Yes. Please contact: e-mail- prativa.pradhan@gnb.ca, Phone 506-444-3243
Are these climate datasets and maps free to download?
Yes.
Whom to contact if I have an issue downloading the datasets and maps?
e-mail- prativa.pradhan@gnb.ca, Phone 506-444-3243
What is the reference information for these climate scenarios datasets and maps?
Roy, P. and Huard D. (2016). Future Climate Scenarios - Province of New-Brunswick. Montreal: Ouranos.
Whom to acknowledge for these climate scenario data and maps?
Climate Change Secretariat, Department of Environment and Local Government, Government of New Brunswick.
If you download these data and maps please fill out this information sheet in order to help us carry out some helpful statistics to know who the major users are, what kind of data sets are of interest, etc.
Table 1: Total Number of Data Tables and Maps
ID Climate Variable and Acronyms Time and Scenarios Total Tables Total Maps Action
1 Mean Temperature
(AnnTemp)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
2 Winter Mean Temperature
(DJFTemp)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
3 Spring Mean Temperature
(MAMTemp)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
4 Summer Mean Temperature
(JJATemp)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
5 Autumn Mean Temperature
(SONTemp)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
6 Annual Total Precipitation
(AnnPrec)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
7 Winter Total Precipitation
(DJFPrec)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
8 Spring Total Precipitation
(MAMPrec)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
9 Summer Total Precipitation
(JJAPrec)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
10 Autumn Total Precipitation
(SONPrec)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
11 Annual Number of Days with Maximum Temperature >25°C
(AnnTxFr25)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
12 Annual Number of Days with Maximum Temperature >30°C
(AnnTxFr30)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
13 Annual Number of Days with Maximum Temperature >35°C
(AnnTxFr35)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
14 Annual Number of Days with Maximum Temperature < 0°C
(AnnTxFrLT0)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
15 Annual Number of Days with Maximum Temperature < -10°C
(AnnTxFrLTM10)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
16 Annual Number of Days with Maximum Temperature < -20°C
(AnnTxFrLTM20)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
17 Annual Cooling Degree Days
(CoolDegDays)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
18 Annual Heating Degree Days
(HeatDegDays)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
19 Annual Corn Heat Units
(CHU)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
20 Annual Freeze-Thaw Days
(AnnFT)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
21 Spring Freeze-Thaw Days
(MAMFT)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
22 Autumn Freeze-Thaw Days
(SONFT)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
23 Winter Freeze-Thaw Days
(DJFFT)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
24 Growing Season Length
(GSL)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
25 Annual Total Rain Days
(RAIN)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
26 Annual Total Snow Days
(AnnSD)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
27 Freeze-Free days
(FFD)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
28 Annual Growing Degree Days >10°C
(GDB10)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files
29 Annual Growing Degree Days > 5°C
(GDB5)
Current (normals 1980-2010)
RCP 4.5- 2020, 2050, 2080
RCP 8.5 – 2020, 2050, 2080
7 6 Show files